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We believe:
-- The entire Mogo Mogo tribe plus Amber is the
new Chapera tribe.
-- The entire Chapera tribe is switched to Mogo
Mogo.
Credit for most of this theory should go to Krautboy
on SurvivorBlows
Ives and Sam Buru on EZBoard's MESS HALL have
uncovered evil color buff editing in the previews.
CBS colored Shii Ann's buff GREEN
and tried to hide the RED.
Check out the animated
Animated GIF (152K).
It appears this pic below from the immunity
challenge has also been tampered. Shii Ann's buff is
poorly colored GREEN,
but CBS forgot the edge of Jerri's RED
buff.
Notice the RED
buff around Jerri and the RED
flag in the background behind Kathy.
As Krautboy suspects, Amber is not shown in the pic
to hide the twist.
QUICK RUNDOWN OF EPISODE
1) Tribes receive treemail and war paint. Chapera
puts on paint. Mogo Mogo isn't too enthused.
Everyone expects a merge.
2) Tribes arrive for reward challenge at beach.
3) A significant amount of time passes. Perhaps the
tribes pair off in groups of two (one Mogo Mogo and
one Chapera) to "hang out for a while."
4) The tribes reconvene for "the twist." Lex calls
the twist, "bizarre." And it is.
5) Amber is switched to Mogo Mogo.
6) Either the rest of the tribes are switched all
together at once, or each Mogo Mogo picks a RED
buff and each Chapera (minus Amber) picks a GREEN
buff.
7) Rob considers throwing the challenge to save
Amber.
8) The tribes play Survivor trivia at the challenge.
9) Merge or vote together?
10) Jerri is booted.
Let's start with something easy ...
The tribes arrive at a beach for "The Big Twist"
Take a special look at Amber's two red sunshines
she has painted on her chest (YES, a GOOD reason to
stare at Amber's chest endlessly!)
(Left): The tribes sit on their mats. Notice that
the Red Chapera flag is far to the right of Rob M.
(Right): Rob M and Chapera laugh. Notice
Rob's red stripes on his right arm and his buff
around neck.
At some point (hours?) later the tribes
reconvene on the beach. As Ives on EZBoard points
out, the tide has changed.
What have the tribes been doing? One of the more
common possibilities is a Thailand-like pair setup.
Each Mogo Mogo goes with a Chapera to visit each
other's camp. Then they come back and do the twist.
(Left): Rob M with NO RED STRIPES on his arm
and no buff around neck. He is now standing VERY
CLOSE to the Chapera flag.
(Right): The tribe stands in a weird formation in
front of Jeff Probst. Rob has no buff. The members
start to drop their buffs as shown in this
Animated gif (684K). The Switch happens now?
FORMATION: Amber (Chapera), Jenna (C), Alicia (C),
Kathy (Mogo Mogo), Rupert (C), Shii Ann (MM), Jerri
(MM), Tom (C), Rob (C), Lex (MM).
No specific pattern, other than
after Jenna, it goes in pairs of (MM and C).
Amber picks a new buff? The red sunshine on the left
side of her chest has worn off.
CONFUSED YET? Now the harder part. Let's figure
out the new tribes.
Here are the buff colors we see throughout the
episode.
Lex has a RED
buff.
Rob has a GREEN
buff and is sitting at Mogo Mogo (confirmed)
(Left): Rob and old Chapera at the challenge. Amber is
missing. Rob and Jenna have
RED buffs.
But they are probably altered. (Right): Jenna
and Rob stand next to a GREEN
flag.
Rob looking unhappy standing in front of a GREEN
flag.
Jerri and old Mogo Mogo at a challenge. Jerri
has a RED buff.
Shii Ann has a GREEN
buff. But we know that it has been altered.
Shii Ann really has a RED
buff. There is a red something near Kathy's head. Is
it a buff? We're not sure, but it looks like a RED
flag or buff.
Where's Amber? Well she's hidden from view to HIDE
THE TWIST. She is competing with Jerri, Shii, Kathy
and Lex. Which leads us to ...
(Left): Amber with Kathy reading. They are on the
same tribe.
We have other pieces of information that lead us to
the makeup of the new tribes.
 --
In the preview, Amber (left) states that she "got
screwed" (no pun intended). CBS hints that "The
turn of events makes one unsuspecting castaway feel
powerless." This makes us believe Amber
ends up on a tribe opposite of her boytoy Rob.
-- Rob says, "The next move I make is going to have
serious consequences." If Rob is on Mogo Mogo, does
this mean he wants to sacrifice the challenge so Amber
wins?
Based on the above analysis we could put
together a tribe scenario.
NEW MOGO MOGO
Alicia
Rob
Jenna
Rupert
Tom
NEW CHAPERA
Shii Ann
Lex
Jerri
Amber
Kathy
The only problem? Mogo Mogo picking all Red is a
1/16 chance (6.25 percent)
One problem with the above speculation is this pic
of Lex:
See the navy blue hat brim to Lex's right? Only three
Survivors have similar hats -- Rob, Alicia and
Ethan. This could be an old pic with Ethan, it could
also be a post-switch pic with Rob or Alicia. This
could also be from a meet-and-greet session before
the twist (see above).
WHAT ABOUT A MERGE?
SurvivorNews.net reported at the start of the season
that the castaways will move to Saboga island this
episode
as a group of 10. The merge color is
BLUE as shown in
this
Kathy photo.
We have no vidcap evidence of a merge with
BLUE buffs.
But the tribes could live together on one beach,
and maybe at Saboga by the end of the episode.
Rupert and Tom are cutting down a tree. Why? To
build a new camp at Saboga?
We don't think the tribes get
BLUE buffs.
But it's possible we have a fake-merge like in
Thailand. Though this time, the tribes vote as one
big group.
Why? Because Jerri is leaving.
And it's doubtful
that a tribe with four Mogo Mogos and Amber would
vote out Jerri instead of Amber. Right?
So what's the solution?
-- How about if both tribes LIVE TOGETHER at Saboga
(a fake merge like Thailand).
-- At the challenge, the winning tribe would receive
immunity, but would still be allowed to vote at
tribal council. The NEW MOGO MOGO tribe wins (old
Chapera) and joins Amber to vote out Jerri.
The last possibility
It's possible that Amber can somehow convince
Kathy and someone else to join her in an alliance.
The three could vote out Jerri at TC.
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