In the web promo, Jeff Probst says the losing tribe of this challenge will be dissolved. While we're not sure who exactly takes first, we think that Saboga loses. If you don't care about the challenge, see TRIBE RESHUFFLE below for the info on the new tribes.

As far as the challenge, again this one harkens back to past Survivor lore -- Survivor 4: Marquesas' Raft Rescue, which Rotu won in Episode 3.

Raft Rescue: Using their newly constructed rafts, they had to race each other along a crisscrossed water course, unhooking and picking up moored supply boxes along the way. The first tribe to successfully complete the course and touch the floating dock with the raft would win. The reward -- either a week's ration of rice, or blankets, pillows and lanterns for comfort.

So it's likely each tribe builds a raft and then at the challenge, the tribes race in some form and Saboga loses.

  

(Left): Saboga let Rupert build its raft and, of course, he dug a big hole in the center of it. Brilliant move by America's favorite castaway.

(Right): Tom pronounces, "Drinkin and drivin' is great." CBS readies for 1,000's of phone calls from MAAD.

(Left): Before the race, the castaways are told by Jeff Probst that the RC loser gets dissolved. Before making a new alliance, Shii Ann catches herself and says, "I'm not falling for that one again!"

(Right): Saboga is probably far behind Chapera (with Tom sitting out). Construction worker RobFather obviously built a good raft in between 15-second hook-ups with Amber.

   

(Left): Mogo Mogo's Lex and Saboga are in a dead heat.
(Right): Mogo Mogo finishes up in first or second place (minus sitting out Shii Ann).

How do we know Saboga loses?

Because we have video captures of the immunity challenge that show Shii Ann in a Mogo Mogo green buff and Rob M and Tom in Chapera red buffs. Could CBS be playing photoshop coloring buffs? Sure, but the people involved make it virtually mathematically impossible that Saboga isn't dissolved. Unless there is some twist we haven't thought of.

So who wins?

-- If Rupert goes to Mogo Mogo that probably means Mogo Mogo wins and got to select both stronger players. (see below).

-- But we know Rob M builds good stuff. He also competed in a similar challenge in S4. We also have a vidcap with Chapera seemingly ahead of Saboga, and a picture of Mogo Mogo neck-and-neck with Saboga. With a heavy Tom sitting out, we think that's advantage Chapera.
 

  

  

(Above Left): FindingDory on EZBoard cracked the case that the person behind Sue and Amber is Jenna L.

(Above Right): Ethan battles Rob M. in the immunity challenge. So we know they are on opposite tribes.

(Lower left): Mogo Mogo Rich takes on Chapera's Jenna L at the immunity challenge.

THE BIG QUESTION: Where does Rupert go?

The problem is that we are unsure how the Saboga tribe is dissolved. Does the tribe that comes in first place in the reward challenge pick two people first? The Early Show says that it is an alternating school-pick style. Therefore we think Rupert is picked by Chapera and Ethan is picked by Mogo.

At the Pearl Islands reunion, Rupert claimed that he knew he could beat Richard Hatch. That certainly sounds like he was on the same tribe with Rich at some point. Since we're pretty sure that Richard is not on the jury, did Rupert vote him out while on Mogo Mogo? Plus, CBS teases, "Two men battle for supremacy: who's the better man for the tribe? Two men battle for the crown of "King Neptune" as fishing becomes a competition in and of itself." This could be a fishing battle between Rupert and Rich at Mogo Mogo.

But Rupert going to Chapera makes sense, too. Since we think he, Jenna and the Chapera trio (Rob, Amber and Tom) are the final group. Why not solidify that alliance right now?

Right now we're leaning towards Rupert going to Chapera.
 

This looks like a combination of challenges from Survivor 5: Thailand, Survivor 6: Amazon, and Survivor 7: Pearl Islands.

Each tribemember squares off against another on a balance-beamlike log. As soon as they enter a white attack zone, they can physically try to throw the other member off the plank. Person that hits the water first is out.

  

(Left): RobFather dumps Ethan (who gets hurt), but Rob looks like he wasn't in the white attack zone. Therefore he is likely disqualified.
(Right): Tom knocks Ethan off and takes a tumble, too.

     

Shii Ann doesn't have to do much because Tom falls off himself?
 

So who wins immunity? We think that depends on where Rupert goes and who wins the reward challenge.


RUPERT KICKS OFF RICH?

-- Rupert going to Chapera might give them an advantage. But we think he might do one better. By going to Chapera and KNOCKING Rich off in the immunity challenge, he could be giving Rich the kiss of death. That might lead to a Chapera victory.


REWARD WINNER IS IMMUNITY LOSER?

CBS helps us out with the teasers:

1) The Reward Challenge promises a great reward for the winners and a shocking development for the losers!
2) A triumphant party is short-lived.

Sounds like the winner of the reward challenge gets some bad news in the form of a trip to tribal council. We think Chapera wins the IC.


CHAPERA DOWN, 3-1?

Based on the vidcaps so far, we think RobFather is disqualified for dunking Ethan outside of the attack zone. Ethan gets another try and Tom dunks him. Tom falls, and it appears Jenna L doesn't have a chance vs. Rich. With Chapera's two strongest men out, that's an advantage to Mogo Mogo.


TOM'S WET AND SAD



Tom did not participate in the reward challenge, but his buff is soaked here. But this pic is back at camp, and might not have anything to do with the challenges.

We'll go with a Chapera victory, because we know the boot.
 

Welcome to Survivor Spoiling. We've been handed the first four boots. NOW, the real spoiling must begin.

And this one is a toughie. We think Richard and Sue might be the next two boots.

Information is flowing from everywhere. Let's split it up by tribe:


IF MOGO GOES TO TC

In the web promo Richard says, "You must go bye bye now." Is it a dead giveaway that Mogo Mogo votes?

The most obvious target is Richard. He's a past winner, and he is the Survivor king. Since Mogo Mogo hasn't had to vote anyone off, he's still there. We know Mogo Mogo gets its third key and likely some rice from its lock box. Lex said he wanted to boot Richard as soon as the rice came in. But with two more Saboga's, Richard might have to be kept around to feed the troops. We've also heard plenty of rumors about him quitting or, more likely, doing something to make someone quit. The latest rumor has Richard's nakedness causing problems THIS episode. Could Richard being naked in the immunity challenge cause someone to quit? It's possible.

But here's the weird thing that we can't explain. The title for next week's episode is "Outraged." That makes us believe that the person who quits goes next week and NOT this week.


IF CHAPERA GOES TO TC

If somehow Mogo Mogo pulls out a victory. Angry Susan is a shoo in to get voted out. The scoop: Jenna L and Rupert or Jerri join forces with Rob, Amber and Tom to vote her out. Rupert or Jerri, we don't think it matters. If Jerri gets dissolved into Chapera, it might make her an instant target. But we're pretty confident Jerri does not get voted off this week. ThumperMagnus from EZ makes a good point. Jerri is still great friends with Amber. Amber might convince RobFather to allow Jerri (and alliance buddy) Jenna L, to stick around for a while. Plus, could the new tribemates get immunity for one TC?

Other possibilities on Mogo Mogo include: Ethan. He is a past winner and is stuck with Jerri or Rupert by himself. He's probably still friends with Africa tribe mate Lex, but does it matter in All-Stars?  Jerri (if she's on Mogo Mogo), Shii Ann and Colby. Jerri will be an outcast on her new tribe, and Colby doesn't like her. Shii Ann is useless in challenges. She even screwed up in the one non-physical challenge (Ep. 4's Matchmaker). Rumors are circulating about Colby, but we think he'll last a little while longer.

Finally, CBS is teasing a "you'll never believe" boot. CBS wants people staying with the show for the final minutes. Anyway, to fit our scenario Susan could be a surprise because people might think Jerri or Jenna L. Heck, we're tired.

Our pick: Sue and Rich are the next two boots. Who goes first? We'll say Richard.

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