Episode 14
With 5 left, the dual duo of Rob M-Amber and Rupert-Jenna L
can make use of Tom as a swing vote to gain an advantage over
the other pair. Promos showed that Rob M fuelled a fiery fight
between Rupert and Tom. If that's the case, Rupert and Tom might
not join forces and the boot would probably be either Tom, Rupert
or Jenna L, depending on who Rob M and Amber decided to align
with.
The simplest would be for the Rob M-Amber pair to vote with
Tom, an original Chapera member, and eliminate both Rupert and
Jenna L regardless who wins immunity this time. This guarantees
them a Final 3 and in a strong position to get each other into
the Final 2.
However, they also had a Final 4 alliance with Rupert and
Jenna L, this means betraying two more players, putting them
onto the already incensed jury. By betraying only one person,
Tom and sticking with the Final 4 alliance, it would perhaps
be a better end-game move.
Source spoilers indicate that Tom is the boot this episode.
Episode 12
Shii Ann is the logical boot for this episode based on the
game-play so far.
The surprising development hinted in the promos is likely Shii
Ann getting immunity. The Press Release also placed emphasis
on Shii Ann's desire to win immunity.
With the only old Mogo Mogo member possibly immune at the TC,
Alicia is the most likely boot candidate since she has been
the odd one out. She made an end-game deal with Rob M earlier
but with Amber back, Alicia is once again on the out.
Source spoilers indicate Alicia gets the boot.
Episode 11
Will there be a coup this week ?
The old Mogo Mogo tribe is left with two members. This may
be a good opportunity for the players in the dominant tribe
to pull them over and break other alliances in the old Chapera
tribe.
Although not all alliances are shown on television, most of
the players would probably have more than one open/secret alliances
with one another already. This may help to strengthen the bond
between them and vote off any outsider.
Kathy is shown in the promos trying to get Jenna L booted.
With Shii Ann keeping herself out of the drama created last
week involving Lex and Rob M, Kathy is the most likely candidate
to be voted off.
Source spoilers :
1. Snewser - Kathy.
2. Orangeena - Kathy.
3. Chillone - Kathy is not among his Final 7.
Episode 10
According to the promos, the tribes officially merge this week
so the immunity challenges are individual from now on.
At a merge, old Chapera is up in numbers against old Mogo Mogo
at 6-3. At this point, it makes sense for old Chapera to dwindle
the old Mogo Mogo tribe further to reduce any hope of a mutiny.
Even if for example 2 or 3 tribe-members of old Chapera plan
to stage a coup and join forces with old Mogo Mogo, they would
still not outnumber the old Mogo Mogo later. If they join with
2 of the old Mogo Mogo, they risking the dropped one from informing
the other old Chapera tribemembers and counterstrike with their
own wheeling and dealing. Hence, an original Mogo Mogo boot
is the most logical.
Amber had promised Lex and Kathy an alliance of 5 for the endgame
but was shown in the promos saying she might not be able to
keep this promise. Rob M is also shown in the promos arguing
with Kathy and Lex, threatening to put their friendship on the
line. Given Rob M's fiery nature, he is likely to gun for either
Lex or Kathy in this episode.
Shii Ann is currently still playing under the radar and is
not as prominent as the leaders Lex and Kathy. She is weak at
challenges and may not be seen to pose an immediate threat to
the old Chapera tribe. She could be booted if Amber can persuade
Rob M and the rest to keep Lex and Kathy around slightly longer.
This however may raise suspicions from the other old Chapera
members.
In the previous episode, Lex and Kathy have revealed to Rob
M and Amber they are in a tighter alliance than with Shii Ann.
To break up the original Mogo Mogo tribe, the logical method
is to boot either Lex or Kathy. Lex may be viewed as more of
a challenge threat than Kathy and since double immunity is at
stake, Lex is more likely to be booted.
Source spoilers :
1. Chillone : did not include Lex and Kathy in the Final 7.
2. SNN Scorecard : Lex and Kathy as the next likely boots.
3. Orangeena : Lex is the boot.
Episode 9
From the vidcaps, it seems that Amber got unlucky and was separated
from the original Chapera tribe in a bizarre twist.
A trivia challenge is held that will decide who will be booted.
In the vidcaps, the original Chapera tribe (without Amber) is
shown competing against the original Mogo Mogo tribe. Rob M
is shown distressed and did not actively participate in the
challenge. With Amber’s role in the tribe, she is unlikely
to be sitting too far away from the action in a trivia challenge.
This probably means Amber is sitting with the original Mogo
Mogo tribe instead.
If the original Chapera tribe wins the immunity challenge, the
logical boot would be Amber. The players are unlikely to merge
at 9, and this means the twist has brought about a ray of hope
for the original Mogo Mogo tribe. They could bring the numbers
down to 5-4 and still stand a chance to even things out by winning
the next immunity challenge.
However, the strategies for the original Mogo Mogo tribe so
far have been related to the merge and they are anxiously expecting
a merge anytime soon. Being down in numbers, they might build
an alliance with Amber to get a majority, with the tight pair
of Amber and Rob M. This means they need to vote off one of
their own. Jerri is the outsider at the original Mogo Mogo tribe
and might become the sacrificial lamb. If Amber gets one-off
immunity for this week due to the surprise twist, Jerri would
also likely be the one voted off.
On the other hand, Alicia and Jenna L might be booted if the
original Chapera tribe lost the immunity challenge. Alicia is
the outsider based on the Insider videos. Rupert and Jenna L
have an alliance with Rob M and Amber earlier. Tom is close
to Rupert and has an alliance with Rob M as well.
Source Spoilers :
1. SNN Scorecard - Jerri as a boot candidate
2. Orangeena - Jerri.
Source spoilers indicate that Jerri gets the boot.
Episode 8
Source spoilers indicate it is Mogo Mogo to be booted this
week.
Chapera tribe members are supposedly safe for the next two episodes.
Mogo Mogo likely boots :
1. Ethan - outsider at the TC last week. Previous winner. Strong
in challenges and in a previous alliance with Lex in Survivor
Africa. As for the rumored tantrum, it may have been exaggerated
or Sue's outburst had somehow morphed into Ethan's tantrum as
words of someone quitting and someone furious, spread and became
distorted.
2. Jerri - pledged her loyalty to Lex, which he values. Annoying
to Kathy and Shii Ann though. However, may help the Mogo Mogo
to pull Jenna L over at the merge.
Shii Ann is part of Mogo Mogo's core alliance. There are rumors
that Lex's wife is told not to turn up for the family visit
challenge further down the road. An SNN article has Kathy making
the merge based on her blue buff.
For the Ep 7 Boot Prediction, I speculated that Lex might be
trying to rope in the ex-Saboga members Ethan and Jerri to help
them at the merge. However, it is shown that Ethan is left out
of Lex's plans and Lex is actually going after the potential
individual immunity threats.
Source spoilers (DarkRivers and Orangeena) has Ethan as this
week's boot.
Episode 7
The web promo indicates a tight race between Chapera and Mogo
Mogo in the IC.
Boot suspects include :
1. Ethan
2. Jerri
3. Colby
4. Shii Ann
5. Alicia
6. Rupert
7. Jenna L
Source spoilers :
a. Orangeena - Ethan, Colby and Jerri are the likely ones to
be booted in Ep 7.
b. SNN Scorecard - Ethan, Colby and Jerri.
This implies Mogo Mogo goes to TC. Promo clips appear to support
this as well since strategic play is shown happening within
the Mogo Mogo tribe.
Shii Ann is probably safe this week because she is in the core
alliance with Lex and Kathy who are in control. Together with
Colby, they hold the majority of the votes. Even if there is
a mutiny of sorts, Kathy and Lex are bigger targets. One other
scenario in which Shii Ann can go is if Mogo Mogo starts losing
challenges in a row and she is seen as the weakest link. However,
this requires that the majority of the tribe members see it
this way and they are united in wanting to win the challenges.
Chapera and Mogo Mogo have 6 members each and if Mogo Mogo loses
the IC this week, they would be 1 down and may not feel the
need to vote off Shii Ann as yet.
From the promos, Lex seems to be telling Shii Ann of a plan
to vote off someone for long-term benefit of their alliance.
This resembles the Lex in Survivor Africa who plans who to vote
off and informs the rest of his alliance.
Jerri is the weaker outsider. She is also shown in the promo
clips as annoying to Kathy and Shii Ann. She is in a vulnerable
position but based on past records, the person who dominates
the promo clips is unlikely the actual one voted out. She has
also pledged
her loyalty to Lex who in previous season seems to value this
form of loyalty. Lex's "bold plan for the future"
is unlikely the voting off of Jerri.
Ethan is a past winner and an outsider. However, he is close
to Lex and they had a strong alliance in Survivor Africa. He
is also strong in challenges and would be an asset to the team.
From Ep 6, he is working well with Lex as well. Lex's "bold
plan for the future" is unlikely the voting off of Ethan.
Colby is a part of the original Mogo Mogo team, and even though
he doesn't seem to fit in well with the tribe, he has managed
to garner support to vote off Richard in Ep 5. He however may
not be in the original core alliance of the original Mogo Mogo
tribe based on Jenna M's chat.
Among the three, if Lex is the mastermind, he may choose to
vote off Colby, instead of Ethan and Jerri. Logically, they
should vote off someone outside their original tribe, i.e. Ethan
or Jerri. However, in the ASS season, some are close friends
outside the game, so it's very possible for tribe members to
vote off someone in their original tribe in place
of a friend who may be absorbed into their current alliance
or who has established some form of alliance with them much
earlier. Another argument for not voting off an ex-Sabogo member
could be due to the original 3-tribe situation and may be Lex's
"bold plan for the future". They can win the trust
of Jerri and Ethan to help them in the long run when the
tribes merged. Jerri and Ethan can pull Rupert and Jenna L over
to Mogo Mogo's side and gain the advantage over the original
Chapera tribe. It would still be a risky move nonetheless.
Latest update from source spoiler ( Orangeena ) indicates
that Colby gets the boot.
Episode 4 Wipe Out!
The likely boots for this episode, based on what has been shown
thus far, are :
a) Ethan (previous winner but was the swing vote in the previous
Saboga TC. My speculation is that he could be the one to quit
in Ep 6.)
b) Jerri (conflict, but is tight with Jenna L)
c) Rupert (conflict, lone vote, but source spoilers indicate
that he goes far. His outburst at the S7 Reunion seems to indicate
he goes further that Richard Hatch who is yet to be voted off.)
d) Richard (previous winner, but won the admiration of his
tribe with his biting showdown with a shark )
e) Colby (not in the core alliance based on Jenna M's chat,
but worked well in RC with Lex)
f) Rob C (not fitting in, but deceptive)
g) Susan (not fitting in, but strong in water challenges )
h) Alicia (previous conflict with Rob M, Chapera's appointed
leader, but appears to have been pulled in as the 4th vote in
Chapera’s core voting alliance. She also bluntly told
off Rob C. ).
Vidcaps of the IC have Chapera falling behind Saboga, though
Mogo Mogo's progress is unknown. So, if Saboga is likely to
do better than Chapera in the IC, my speculation is that the
Saboga tribe is not going to TC.
The supposed voting alliance of Lex, Kathy, Jenna M and Shii
Ann is now left with 3 but will still be in the majority. Lex
may rope in Colby as their fourth, who is likely less volatile
or unpredictable than Richard.
Source spoilers :
1. Patagonia Spoiler - Tina, Rudy ( the first 2 boots ) and
Rob C were seen together on a horse-riding trip.
2. ChillOne : no mention of boot no. 4.
3. Orangeena posted at Sucks that Rob C is boot no. 4, and
Richard is due next.
4. I LUV TIJUANA posted at Sucks that Rob C is boot no. 4.
Rudy's CBS chat appears to hint that Rob C is voted off earlier,
which ties in with the Patagonia spoiler.
The CBS Press Release reveals that "Deception, revenge
and confusion fuel the chaos at losing tribe camp as they prepare
for Tribal Council." Rob C is more likely to be involved
in what’s described above as opposed to Susan, based on
their strategies and actions in their respective seasons.
Alicia calls out Rob C for not pulling his weight in the last
RC. In Amazon, Rob C positioned himself as the entertainer earlier
on in Tambaqui, but is not able to do the same in Chapera (Team
Entertainers) for ASS. He is also bestowed with the title as
the deceptive "best player to not win", effectively
making him a bigger target than most others.
My conclusion -
If Mogo Mogo takes the hike to TC, Richard is out.
Between Susan and Rob C, it appears that for this episode,
Rob C is likely the Chapera boot.
Source spoilers indicate it's Rob C this week.
Episode 3 Shark Attack!
Jenna leaves the game..Nothing more to predict for this episode
Episode 2 "Panicked, Desperate, Thirsty As Hell"
Vidcaps have Mogo Mogo in a sinking boat which is not a good
sign. Based on pure vidcap speculation, Mogo Mogo appear to
be TC-bound. The CBS Press Release states that the Tribal Council
managed to draw tears. That could possibly mean Jenna quitting
due to her mother and her tribe feeling sad for her, though
that would be one episode earlier than the tip coming from source
spoilers.
Logically though, Mogo Mogo should do well in this IC. Richard
is good in water challenges, being the first one to dive in
for Ep 1’s IC, and the strength of Colby, Lex should give
them an edge. Kathy also did well for the S4’s challenge
when together with Gina, they paddled to an upset win.
Source spoilers also seem to point to either a Rudy or Ethan
boot, and thus a Saboga loss (vidcap misdirection). Rudy could
be unwell and Rupert might not have fully recovered from his
S7 stint.
Source spoilers :
Sleek28 picks Rudy.
ChillOne picks Ethan.
Orangeena posted at Sucks that Rudy is next to go.
Ethan is the outsider based on the votes cast in the 1st Tribal
Council and logically would be the next Saboga boot. However,
a teary Tribal Council is unlikely if Ethan is booted.
Jeff Varner also mentioned that Ethan throws a tantrum that
changes the game, and there is no hint of it in the riddles.
Besides, an Ep 2 tantrum for the outsider is unlikely to affect
the core alliance and change the game.
Remembering the Patagonia spoiler by colleenlover, Rudy and
Rob C are the ones joining Tina at LL but may not necessarily
be in that order. Another argument for a Rudy boot would be
that Saboga has lost 2 physical ICs in a row ( 3 if one predicts
they lose the physical RC as well ) and is more likely to boot
Rudy rather than Ethan for any hope of surviving future physical
challenges. The vidcaps also show Rudy not doing well in the
Stairway Challenge. Besides, he drank unboiled water against
advice and could be starting to feel the effects. A Rudy boot
may also result in a teary Tribal Council.
There isn’t much airtime or confessionals for Rudy or
Ethan for Ep 1, and it’s probably too early to use story/story
arc to gauge the likelihood of a boot.
From all this information we have, it appears that Rudy will
be voted-off next.
Episode 1 They're Back!! By Silver Swerver
With no storyline or screentime to go by, the first boot is
traditionally speculated based on vidcaps, or source spoilers.
Vidcaps seem to point to Saboga losing the first IC and going
to tribal council.
Based on available source spoilers, such as Patagonia (Tina,
Rudy, Rob C), ChillOne ( Tina ), Sleek28 ( Tina ), all point
to Tina being the first boot. This is especially since SNN has
retracted their tip that the first boot is male which helps
in pointing to a female first boot instead. It also depends
on how reliable these source spoilers are. In my very own opinion,
Patagonia should be reliable. The way ChillOne’s first
boot comes about is not as convincing. He specified an Ethan
first boot earlier then supposedly received further information
from his source (The Man) that Tina is actually the first boot.
The likelihood of Sleek28’s boot order accuracy is 50-50
( either mostly accurate or a sleek hoax inevitably in the ASS
season )
Out of the other 3 females in Saboga, Jerri and Jenna L are
athletic and should be considered vital assets to the Saboga
tribe after losing their first physical IC. Tina is already
a winner ( most convenient reasons others can come up with to
justify their boot ), and she would be a formidable opponent
comes merge in terms of likability, strategy and endurance.
My first boot prediction is thus Tina. Rudy would be the next
logical choice.
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